The global solar energy sector continues to dominate the renewable energy landscape, with 2023 marking another record year, according to the Global Market Outlook for Solar 2024–2028.
The report said the world added 447 GW of new solar capacity, accounting for 78% of the 576 GW of renewable capacity installed globally. This is a notable increase from 66% in 2022 and 56% in 2021, reflecting a growing reliance on solar energy to meet escalating electricity demands.
The International Energy Agency predicts significant growth in global electricity demand in 2024 and 2025, with solar photovoltaic (PV) expected to meet half of this increase.
“This is a positive prediction for the future for members of our industry here at home as well,” says Dr Rethabile Melamu, the CEO of the Solar PV Industry Association (Sapvia).
Sapvia is one of the contributors to the recent report with De Wet Taljaard, a Technical Specialist: Solar Energy at Sapvia, the author of the South Africa segment of the report,
SA’s expanding solar sector
The report said South Africa's solar PV landscape has evolved significantly since surpassing 1 Gigawatts of installed capacity in 2020. Regulatory reforms in 2022 spurred unprecedented growth in private utility-scale projects, while residential solar PV adoption has risen sharply due to severe power outages caused by loadshedding.
All solar PV projects installed in South Africa larger than 100 kW are required to register with the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa) prior to construction.
“In 2023, 2.1 GW of wheeling-specific solar PV projects were registered with Nersa, representing 79% of all registered projects by capacity and 86% of all projects larger than 10 MW. This shows a clear trend in the market towards larger-scale private sector projects, the report said.
The country installed 3.3 GW of new solar capacity in 2023, bringing its total operational capacity to over 8 GW. Residential installations alone accounted for 330 MW, with an additional 450 MWh of battery storage. However, the report noted the high cost of solar systems limits adoption to higher-income households, prompting government initiatives like the Energy Bounce Back Scheme to support middle-income users.
Commercial and industrial (C&I) solar demand is also surging, driven by energy resilience needs, sustainability goals, and cost optimisation.
Commercial banking members of Sapvia reported that up to 85% of C&I projects funded in 2023 combined rooftop solar PV with BESS, a significant shift from previous years.
The report noted that reforms such as removing licensing thresholds for private-sector projects have catalysed growth, with 384 solar projects totalling 2.7 GW registered in 2023. Most projects involve electricity wheeling, a system where energy is transmitted from rural solar farms to urban industrial users. However, wheeling is not immune to loadshedding risks, as de-energised distribution networks can disrupt power delivery.
However, in South Africa challenges persist, including grid congestion in high solar-potential regions, skill shortages and slow infrastructure rollouts. By 2032, South Africa will need an additional 14 000 km of transmission lines to integrate the expected 53 GW of renewable energy projects, the report said..
Looking ahead, the report said the outlook for South Africa’s solar market from 2024 to 2028 remains optimistic.
The unbundling of Eskom, South Africa’s state-owned utility, is set to open new opportunities for private-sector participation. The introduction of a wholesale electricity market by the 1st April 2026 and the declining costs of solar and BESS technologies could unlock further growth.
The report further said the decarbonisation of supply chains, prompted by international regulations such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, will likely further accelerate solar adoption across all sectors.
BUSINESS REPORT