By Randall Carolissen
Digital technologies are transforming markets and creating novel economic opportunities pervasively across all sectors. According to the World Bank, strengthening digital inclusion is of paramount importance for any nation’s competitiveness and social stability. Yet profound obstacles to inclusion remain, and demographic divides continue to entrench inequalities across the global digital landscape.
As discussed in my first article ( iol br online, Lessons from the AI Government Readiness Index leaders), research by Accenture has found that Artificial Intelligence (AI) could double annual economic growth rates by 2035 by changing the nature of work, defining new synergies between man and machine, and boosting labour productivity by up to 40%.
Furthermore, many governments are looking to use AI to improve efficiencies in their delivery of social services – particularly in promoting citizens’ access to and experience of government services.
In the fifth edition of the Artificial Intelligence Readiness Index, published by Oxford Insights in 2022, South Africa ranked 68 out of 181 countries surveyed globally, and second after Mauritius on the African continent. The Index uses 39 indicators measured across 10 dimensions, which are then grouped under three pillars: Government, Technology Sector and Data and Infrastructure.
The average score of the 46 Sub-Saharan African countries measured by the Index in 2022, at 29.38, was the lowest globally. The region is overrepresented at the bottom, accounting for 21 out of the 25 lowest scores, and performs particularly poorly on the Technology Sector pillar, with an average of only 20.96 out of 100.
Mauritius leads the region with a score of 53.4, and South Africa follows with a 47.74, deriving its strength from the Data and Infrastructure pillar. Rwanda currently ranks fourth in Sub-Saharan Africa but is driven by strong political will and the country’s leadership of Smart Africa. While it is expected that South Africa will continue to benefit from relatively strong infrastructure, it faces an ongoing energy crisis which, amongst other crises, stymies its developmental agenda including that of human capital.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s lack of digitalisation and slower adoption of AI technology means that strong regulations and investment in digital literacy at this early stage may realise sought after gains. South Africa is the only country in the region with access to both a top five cloud provider, and commercially available 5G infrastructure. The country’s telecommunications regulators have acted on reducing the cost of mobile data, which has the potential to have “a massive impact” on access and lay the foundation for more of the population to benefit from AI technologies.
There are real obstacles to AI readiness in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although broadband coverage has increased, the majority of the region still lacks access to mobile internet. Sub-Saharan African countries have the lowest average scores on the Percentage of Households with Internet Access and Cost of Cheapest Internet-Enabled Device relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita measures. Illustrative of the high inequality, and therefore its dampening effect on innovation, there exist dynamic, sophisticated and advanced private sectors that cater to a very small minority of the elite.
The majority of Sub-Saharan African countries have by now passed data protection laws, and the African Union’s Executive Council endorsed a Data Policy Framework in early 2022. In general, however, there is an absence of the necessary resources to enforce these laws. There is also a lack of comprehensive follow-up regulation regarding these laws, particularly when it comes to regulation on the specific risks of AI.
Mauritius is the only country in the region with a published AI strategy, and while some countries have announced forthcoming strategies only Benin, Ghana, Nigeria, and Rwanda have national strategies currently in development. Smart Africa, a regional collaboration led by the Rwandan government, is currently partnering with Ghana.
Despite a low average score on the Technology Sector pillar, there is an active, if not yet mature, private tech sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya and Nigeria have dynamic startup ecosystems with Kenya ranking highly on Venture Capital Availability measures, while in 2021 Nigeria produced the second-highest number of AI research papers in the region. Fintech is the fastest-growing startup sector in the region due to its large unbanked population.
Gaps to be addressed to accelerate African AI development
In 2020, the Ministry of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and Innovation (MINICT) in Rwanda initiated the development of a national AI policy. Supported by the Digital Transformation Center through the FAIR Forward project and The Future Society, MINICT, together with key stakeholders, has defined six priority areas for effective AI policy in Rwanda emanating from the National AI Policy.
Concurrently, the Rwanda Utilities Regulatory Authority (RURA) has been developing ethical guidelines for the use of AI that are intended to guide AI developers in Rwanda on how to mitigate the risks and harms that the technology might entail. Rwanda has created a centre dedicated to the development of artificial intelligence to help create “faster, more agile approaches” to using emerging technologies by government.
The Rwandan government created the Centre, the first in Africa, as the speed and scale of technological change in the Covid-19 pandemic put “enormous pressure on regulatory environments” and aims to assist the country in collaborating with global stakeholders to design and pilot new solutions in technology governance. These interventions have significantly propelled Rwanda to take up digital leadership on the African continent.
South Africa’s digital ambitions are encapsulated in the Fourth Industrial Revolution Presidential Report gazetted on October 23,2020. A key recommendation was the establishment of a national AI Institute to respond to crucial catalytic projects identified by the South Africa government.
The first node was launched by the University of Johannesburg on November 30, 2022, followed by another node at Tshwane University of Technology on March 23, 2023. The AI Institute is intended to bring together all role players in academia, the public and private sectors to effectively interface with global partners, as well as provide an enabling regulatory ecosystem.
Political will, integration of AI into national economic policy, and the development of an enabling ecosystem appear to be the key drivers of AI adoption in the developmental plans of nations that have managed to insert themselves on an AI-based upward trajectory. The manifestation of an AI strategy must be developed through national consensus, and funded by the fiscus and private sector.
Governments should craft comprehensive regulations and ethical principles prior to wide-scale technology adoption to ensure proper governance when growth presents itself. The African Union has a working group on AI and worked with Smart Africa to publish the ‘AI for Africa Blueprint’, which outlines the opportunities and challenges of AI in the region.
It also proposes key principles and pillars for inclusion in any regional AI strategy. The African Commission on Human and People’s Rights recently adopted Resolution 473, calling on national governments, the African Union, and others to work towards developing legal and ethical frameworks to govern AI and emerging technologies across the continent.
Utter commitment to the development of ‘smart’ governments to improve allocation of AI resources, improve social delivery systems and foster inclusion of marginalised societies is critical if the vast latent human potential and youth dividend in Africa is to be realised in the process.
Ultimately, investment in both physical and human capital is required to build responsive AI societies, and this requires a paradigm shift in the development of smart assets, redesign of education curricula, and lowering costs of AI acquisition.
Randall Carolissen, Dean: Johannesburg Business School, University of Johannesburg, and Distinguished Professor (University of Woxsen).
BUSINESS REPORT