The stakes in the GNU politics reached an all-time high last week. With the president signing parts of the Bela Bill into law and the DA firing two deployed cadres, the ANC and DA are awkwardly adjusting to the demands of partial power.
The two senior parties in the GNU have been in constant weekly fights with each other. From Tshwane to the Bela Bill to cadre deployment, tensions are loading within the GNU.
The other members of the GNU appear to be silent or won’t risk a fight with the ANC. The DA is taking the fight to the ANC.
My teacher and mentor, Alex Tabisher, quoted WB Years to me last week when he stated, “Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold … the best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.”
The DA and ANC are flexing their muscles, hoping the voters will notice their presence and convictions. Voters the world over love political stirrers and outliers. The Republican Party’s Donald Trump is a classic case of one such outlier.
The DA’s firing of Ronaldo Gouws and Roman Cabanac might have similar impacts as the ANC’s firing of Jacob Zuma. Cadres come back to haunt you.
Here’s the lesson: if you allow your party to be used by your members to build a base of extremism of any kind, then know when you fire the member, you are also firing that base.
And that will hurt you at some time, at the polls or in a party split. Ask the ANC.
The ANC knows that an embittered EFF and an empowered DA and MK Party are waiting for it at the 2026 polls. Thus far it has done nothing in government that shows voters it is back to its glory days of 1994. It also cannot afford to do worse than in 2021 and 2024. With its bones rattling, its imminent death is being openly spoken about.
The DA has been impressive in its national government role to date, with its ministers wasting no time to undo the legacies of incompetence of its ANC predecessors. But appeasing the alt-right in its membership and voter base is a constant reminder that its leadership has not settled on a vision for South Africa that aligns with the Constitution.
Appointing an anti-constitutionalist to support the party leader in his role as minister was a massive blunder for the DA.
Party leader John Steenhuisen has significantly toned down his anti-ANC rhetoric and appears to be very cosy with President Ramaphosa behind closed doors. This must be infuriating to party federal chairperson Helen Zille, who would have wanted more fox terrier than chihuahua from Steenhuisen.
Ramaphosa is an expert at charming strategic opposition leaders when they are working together. Remember his fly-fishing dates with Roelf Meyer? This is where Ramaphosa is most dangerous. He comes up close as a contrarian and leaves, having won a comrade, by stealth.
The DA, for all its threats, is finding it very comfortable being so close to power. It’s the 20% dream of Helen Zille. There is little to no chance that it will ever collapse the GNU.
For one, their funders won’t allow them to. They will have to make this lump of clay work.
The DA is at a crossroads. It will increasingly be pressured to distance itself from its alt-right base. This may push its alt-right base to break away from it. Like the old National Party, it will have to face the tough decision of facing its dissolution or becoming a new party in full coalition with the ANC.
This is the well-known Ramaphosa fly-fishing strategy. Perhaps the weekly fights are a sign of a blossoming new love between the two parties.
* Lorenzo A. Davids.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.
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