Durban - The Institute of Risk Management South Africa’s (Irmsa’s) latest report has raised concerns over growing social unrest in the country, with social and economic factors fuelling protests and riots.
The ninth edition of the Irmsa annual risk report stresses the urgent need for strategic and comprehensive actions to address the interplay of multiple predicaments that threaten the nation’s stability and progress.
Ahead of next year’s election, there are concerns that if issues continue to be left unattended, then waves of protest action could become a reality.
A protest attributed to discontent with service delivery led to a car-carrier being set alight on the N2 in Durban last month.
Active citizenry has also been behind protests in Diepsloot, Johannesburg, where residents have vowed to intensify their discontent with the high crime rate in their area as they call for President Cyril Ramaphosa to address them.
Residents said they live in fear in their own community and one demonstration turned violent as some protesters torched stalls belonging to hawkers.
In Hammanskraal, the epicentre of a deadly cholera outbreak which has claimed at least 29 lives, the government faces legal action by residents.
The Irmsa report said the country was experiencing a poly-crisis, the occurrence of numerous crises simultaneously or in rapid succession, resulting in complex and interconnected challenges for governments, organisations and societies.
Irmsa’s chief risk adviser, Christopher Palm, said since 2015 the country has faced recurrent risks that have persisted and intensified, paving the way for the current situation.
“Economic challenges, including stagnant growth, high unemployment, and persistent inequality, have consistently ranked among the major risks facing the country. Concerns over corruption, governance, the rule of law, and breakdowns in public service delivery have also been recurring themes.”
The report said the country had experienced a surge in social unrest, with protests and riots fuelled by issues such as inadequate service delivery, poverty, inequality, unemployment and political corruption.
A lack of investment in infrastructure has been exacerbated by environmental risks, particularly related to climate change, extreme weather events and water scarcity. The country, said the Irmsa, must urgently respond to the impacts of climate change, resolve the persistent energy crisis, and confront a deteriorating infrastructure situation.
Palm said ethical and visionary leadership, along with measures to address persistent inequality and unemployment, are essential for progress.
“If left unaddressed, the consequences of the poly-crisis could lead South Africa toward becoming a failed state, or worse a mafia state.”
The Irmsa said the proposed risk-response strategies include:
- Strengthening governance and combating corruption by fostering transparency, accountability, and democratic institutions. Measures should be taken to uphold the rule of law, ensuring equal treatment for all citizens.
- Combating crime and violence through increased investment in law enforcement, improvements to the criminal justice system, and addressing causes of criminal activity.
- Investing in public infrastructure, with a focus on digitising basic public services, improving energy and water resources, and enhancing public transportation.
Local governance expert, Professor Thokozani Nzimakwe of the University of KwaZulu-Natal, said the report painted an accurate picture of the social issues in the country, especially among unemployed youth.
Young people aged 15-24 and 25-34 are the most vulnerable in the labour market, with the unemployment rate in these age groups reaching 61% and 39.9%, respectively last year, according to Afrika Tikkun Services.
Nzimakwe said young people were frustrated and despondent as there were very few job opportunities for them when they emerge from institutions of higher learning.
“If you look at high youth unemployment and government’s inability to maintain infrastructure then you can see the impact on people’s lives.”
Nzimakwe said people were reluctant to participate in the process of electing their own government because they did not trust the democratic process.
“They are not keen to vote because they do not see it as making a difference to their futures.”
Political analyst Tessa Dooms said there had been a deterioration in basic service delivery and services in general since 2008.
“There is no clear housing plan despite population growth and that is why we have seen a growth in informal settlements and the building of communities in precarious circumstances.”
Dooms said not all protests should be categorised as unrest as there were more targeted sporadic and intentional protests, which were led by active citizenry showing their discontent.
“The other major issue is crime, which is a national issue.
“There is very little sense of a working social compact in the country and the greatest existential threat is people losing faith in democracy.”