By Siseko Maposa
It is a truism that in politics there are “no permanent friends, no permanent enemies but permanent interest”.
Political decisions are complex, opportunistic, and cynical, so much so that we are often perplexed by the chess moves of politicians.
These decisions however are always directed by the interests of survival and continuity.
Seeing the African National Congress (ANC) Secretary General Ace Magashule in the dock of the Bloemfontein Magistrate’s Court on February 19 was a case in point of oscillating political interests – so fluid in South Africa currently one just wonders who is eating with who and at who’s table. It is indeed a spectacular fall for Magashule given that just a moment ago he enjoyed the support of the ANC, particularly its’ Free State constituency.
Many of his fellow comrades in senior leadership had not uttered a word at charges against him amounting to 21 counts of fraud and money laundering.
The tides have changed dramatically however and Magashule is left with limited options.
Magashule’s fall started late last year when news of his eminent arrest emerged because of alleged corruption on his part, during his tenure as Premier of Free State, in the failed R255 million asbestos housing project.
In October 2020, a group of ANC Free State members rallied outside Luthuli House instructing the ANC top six to “flush out” corruption in the party.
These members, led by Polediso Motsoeneng, called for Magashule to step down.
They further called for the party to act against anyone who was attempting to undermine Ramaphosa’s leadership.
We have since witnessed various ANC cadres press the leadership for a swift response to the Magashule matter.
In recent times, ANC deputy secretary-general Jessie Duarte has released various press statements insinuating that Magashule must go.
This is rather extraordinary given that Duarte, ahead of ANC’s January 8th birthday, was extremely cautious of issues relating to corruption in the ANC, telling media that getting officials to step down was “not a simple matter”.
Pravin Gordhan has also recently joined calls for Magashule to step down.
Magashule’s fate at Luthuli House was decided upon in mid-December when the ANC Integrity commission recommended that he step aside with immediate effect.
Last week’s NEC meeting was just a nail in the coffin as the NEC committed to implement guidelines adopted at its’ 54th conference instructing members and leaders in conflict with the law or accused of serious misdemeanours to step aside.
Even in his current tenure as secretary-general, Magashule seems to hold no influence in the party as other NEC members have blocked some of his directives.
At the NEC meeting last week, Magashule recommended a list of 40 of his loyalties, some who were not even known to the party, to take up positions in the National Youth Task Team (NYTT) mandated with rebuilding the ANC Youth League.
Unsurprisingly, his list was rejected by party leaders and with that his hopes of capturing the ANCYL.
But why the change of sentiment towards Magashule?
The change is necessitated by political considerations, on the part of ANC senior leadership, influenced by ANC’s need to regain the confidence of citizens who have been disgruntled by rampant corruption in the party.
The fight against corruption in the ANC has become fashionable ever since Ramaphosa vowed to “renew” the party in his presidential term.
Internal alliances are formed through a risk analysis of the party landscape.
To avoid the purge, ANC officials must ensure that they are on the right side of renewal and not a candidate for renewal.
The way Magashule has responded to his corruption allegations is indicative of someone who aspires to be a bandit – someone who perceives themselves to be outside law, operating in a lawless republic.
His disregard for the ANC, the very same party that ascended him to top political life, is rather cynical.
Recently, he compared himself to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arguing that just like the prime minister, he should be allowed to stay in office during his corruption trail.
He later stated that the Israel example was bad because his party supported the Palestinian struggle.
That aside, Magashule hopes for a political resolution to his corruption problems, an overtly lawless mentality.
His limited influence in the Free State seems to be a card he is willing to use.
Outside the Bloemfontein High Court on Friday, February 19, a crowd of people congregated illegally at a park near the court to show support for Magashule.
While Magashule did not address the crowd, due to lockdown regulations, he did show a vote of salute by clinching his fit and raising it towards the audience as he was leaving the court building – a symbolic gesture tethering his corruption case to liberation struggle discourse.
Unfortunately for Magashule and his supporters, he is not outside the law, he is not outside ANC policy, and he cannot render the state lawless – even if he longs to be a bandit he will outstandingly fail in his attempts.
While politics may be fluid and interests change, South Africa has a robust judiciary system and a grounded rule of law.
The jig is up for Magashule, he will face the music.
Siseko Maposa is a political economist and holds a Master’s degree in International Relations at UCT.
He writes in his personal capacity.