By Trevor Ngwane
“South Africa is on the road to economic recovery: the world recognises that. We have a long way to go, and economic outlook is fraught with risks and uncertainties,” said Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana during his visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, earlier this year.
His realistic optimism might be misplaced as he faces the prospect of delivering what could be a penultimate Budget speech before the sky falls on his party, the ANC.
National elections are due to be held in May 2024, exactly 30 years since the ANC took power under the leadership of Nelson Mandela. Many people believe that the voters will put the ANC to the sword after three decades of arguably disastrous leadership and governance of the country. Electoral anxieties abound among ANC leaders including its president, Cyril Ramaphosa. It is sometimes said that when a condemned man faces the gallows, he suddenly acquires an acute clarity. Will Godongwana’s budget speech on February 22 show signs of visionary clarity? Will his numbers help the ANC regain its authority and popularity among the masses?
“Politics is the most concentrated expression of economics, its generalisation, and its culmination,” wrote Vladimir Lenin, the leader of the 1917 Russian Revolution.
Under modern capitalism, a socio-economic order driven by class struggle, the budget is a battlefield where the classes line up against each other, fighting to get the greatest share of the national wealth. On the one hand, is the capitalist class with its riches and privileges, intent on hanging onto and extending its power. On the other hand, is the working class struggling to improve its lot in the face of exploitation and oppression by the ruling class.
The crisis of the ANC as a political party, government and movement is that its failures have turned substantial sections of all classes against it. This deep aversion has crystallised around its association with and perceived culpability for the energy crisis. Hobnobbing with the rich and powerful global elite in Davos did not spare Godongwana the embarrassment of being asked pointed questions about how his government planned to overcome this crisis. Richard Quest, the CNN news anchor, recently visited the country and was dismayed by the rolling power cuts which he refused to call load shedding finding the term a ridiculous euphemism.
Like Houdini, the famous escape artist, Godongwana must miraculously present a budget that takes the ANC government out of the deep hole it has dug itself in, timeously to avert being politically obliterated in the coming elections.
In his State of the Nation Address delivered more than a week ago, President Cyril Ramaphosa listed some of the fiscal tricks that Godongwana must perform. He must bail out Eskom to the tune of about R200 billion, thus helping it reduce its R400bn debt.
“Eventually, in the next 12 to 18 months, we will be able to say load shedding is a thing of the past,’ he told the Davos crowd.
The working class and the poor, including other classes, are in crisis and simply cannot cope with the rocketing cost of living. In December, consumer inflation was 7.2% and dropped to 6.9% in January. However, food inflation climbed to 13.4%, the highest in 14 years. Price increases for meat, vegetables, cereals and other food stuffs are relentless.
According to Mervyn Abrahams, the programme co-ordinator at the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity research unit, the price of the food basket for the working class far exceeds the minimum wage and other sources of income. Lack of nutrition has led to 25% of children having stunted growth in South Africa.
Despite resistance by mainstream bourgeois economists, Ramaphosa announced the extension of the Social Relief for Distress grant. It is ironic that the arguably tokenistic R350 a month does make a difference given the economic desperation millions of people find themselves in.
However, he was cagey about the universal basic income grant talking about the development of a “targeted basic income for the most vulnerable” which means it will be neither universal nor unconditional. Furthermore, this must be done “within our fiscal constraints”, a code phrase for austerity underpinning budget cuts to health care, education, welfare and all the services that poor people depend on.
Austerity is behind Godongwana’s refusal to pay public sector workers a living wage. Last year, he unilaterally gave a 3% increase which all the unions rejected on economic and collective bargaining procedural grounds.
The unions will present him with a strike notice on budget day because it is he who must loosen the purse strings that can help build an efficient and well-resourced public sector that provides adequate services for all.
Now is the time to force the hand of a government that has failed the working class and the poor. The sinking ANC must do good to those whose struggle put it in power.
Trevor Ngwane is the Director of the Centre for Sociological Research and Practice, University of Johannesburg.