Good or bad, treat market trends as your friends

Published Feb 19, 2006

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Anyone who swims regularly in the ocean will have been taught at a very early age never to fight against the current as it just wears you out and could risk your life. It is far more sensible to relax and go with the flow until you are spilled out on to the shore.

A similar analogy can be drawn in markets in general and the stock market in particular. Markets are characterised by cycles that reflect economic conditions and prospects. They are forward-looking rather than retrospective and tend to factor in good news well ahead of its actual delivery. There are upward cycles, known in financial parlance as bull markets, and downward cycles, referred to as bear markets. There are also neutral cycles when the markets just bob along sideways.

A bull market is the type that we all enjoy and from which we benefit - even if we are not invested in the market - as not only do share prices move up, but our other savings - such as unit trusts, pension funds and life assurance investments - also grow.

The South African stock market has enjoyed two very good years, and last year was particularly good with the index powering up 44 percent.

Most people are generally optimistic, which is probably why bull markets tend to last longer than bear markets, but having experienced such tremendous growth in assets, most begin to fear that it will all end in tears and a crash.

Sure enough, crashes - when share prices tumble - are very much part of the market reality, but they rarely come when expected and they seldom destroy value for the long-term investor who rides out the storm and does not panic.

It is perfectly true that the clever investor, who manages - by fluke, more often than not - to sell at the top and buy at the bottom, does a little better than most.

Any long-term graph will show that all of the market corrections, or crashes, of the past 60 years ended up as insignificant blips on the radar.

This was particularly true of 1987, when if you were a panic seller and did not buy back within six months, you were a sad loser. The lesson in this is not to panic and fight the trend. As the cliché goes, the trend is your friend.

This is not to say that we should not constantly review our investments and objectives. If your objective was to save enough to build a new home, purchase a new car or finance a fantastic holiday and the objective has been met, don't be greedy. You should cash in and realise your goal. If your investment is part of your long-term savings strategy and you have become too nervous and unwilling to accept the risk of possible losses, it is quite acceptable to opt out and take your profits.

But most of us shall just marvel at the strength of the South African market and enjoy the ride - a ride that will be bumpy in both directions.

There are plenty of good reasons for the stock market to be strong at present.

We have a strong economy underpinned by a growing middle class with disposable income and wonderful aspirations, a stable interest rate and exchange rate environment, and a government and parastatals committed to significant expenditure on capital intensive projects - housing, roads, railways, pipelines, harbours and other infrastructural development. All of this supports economic growth and company profits. Growing company profits result in higher dividends and that, in turn, is reflected in higher share prices.

The market can run ahead of itself and this can lead to it becoming becalmed before moving again.

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