On November 16, the outgoing US President Joe Biden met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in Peru, just two months before he handed over power in Washington to incoming president, Donald J. Trump.
The political transition in Washington will mark a return to power for Trump, who previously lost to Biden after his largely chaotic first term in office. The Trump administration will wield immense power after winning the Presidency, Senate, and Congress to control both the Executive and Legislature, amplifying global concerns about risks of unpredictability and uncertainty in Washington, and its implications for bilateral and multilateral relations, particularly with China, Africa and much of the global of the south.
While relations between the US and China have been historically contentious, characterised by cooperation, competition, and rivalry, an assertive rising China has emerged as a close ally, and partner with the African continent, and countries in the global south.
Although the major concern in Washington is largely US and China relations in the context of fears that the Trump presidency could up-end efforts towards cordial relations between the two major powers, such threats equally extend to the strong mutually beneficial socio-economic cooperation among developing countries forged on the back of robust sustained economic growth and development in China.
Competition and rivalry between the two major powers over divergent national interests on trade, domestic production, and economic development, issues over human rights conflated with threats to national sovereignty and self-determination, with Taiwan as a major flashpoint, and the evolving nature, structure, character, and evolving norms of global governance among other issues call for great statesmanship, particularly during such volatile historical moments as we live in.
As emphasised by Chinese authorities, mutual respect among sovereign nations, and fair mutually beneficial cooperation is important to uplifting the welfare of humanity, including continued progress in modernisation in the two major powers.
During their meeting in Peru, both leaders acknowledged that relations between the two powers in the four years of the Biden administration were characterised by ups and downs.
After Trump’s chaotic first term, the Biden administration pursued a policy to “responsibly manage” competition and rivalry with Beijing to mitigate chances of miscalculation and open conflict.
However, the continued violations of the sovereignty of China as US officials visited Taiwan and the issue of floating balloons temporarily heightened tensions between the two powers.
China continues to strongly assert its sovereignty over Taiwan, recognised by the United Nations, the US itself, and most world governments as part of mainland China, under the government of the Chinese Communist Party.
Beijing has firmly asserted that intrusive overtures by the US and other Western powers in Taiwan and its other territories are an unacceptable violation of its national sovereignty and self-determination, hence a redline.
Furthermore, Beijing has strongly criticised the unilateral imposition of sanctions against Chinese exports making a case that such unwarranted protectionism undermined open economic globalisation.
The weaponisation of economic instruments also smacked of economic war against the domestic development of China akin to a cold war, the ideological polarisation between the West and the Eastern bloc which had serious economic and political consequences for developing countries caught between the two ideological camps during the 1970s and 1980s.
The incoming Trump administration presents major risks of escalating heightened bilateral and multilateral competition and rivalry between Washington and Beijing, with serious consequences for countries in Africa and the global south which are key members of such multilateral cooperation initiatives with China such as the Forum for Africa China Cooperation (FOCAC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which accounts for major Chinese infrastructure projects and investment in the global south.
There are global fears that the Trump Administration could upend the relative stability between Washington and Beijing, when he assumes office in January, risking unwarranted fiercer escalation and rivalry between the two superpowers, and potential deterioration of relations.
A zero-sum, tit-for-tat cycle will not only jeopardise economic prospects in the two major powers but will adversely affect countries in Africa and the global south, diminishing prospects for global cooperation on critical national and global issues.
The first Trump administration, (2017-201) imposed a range of punitive sanctions on China. During his campaign for Presidency, Trump made no secret of his intention to take a hard line on China, threatening to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese imports.
The President-elect has followed his threats up by appointing China hawks in his foreign policy and national security teams, marking a major shift away from Biden’s strategy of responsibly “managing competition”. Such Cabinet nominees as Sen Marco Rubio (R-Fla) Secretary of State, Rep Mike Waltz (R-Fla) as National Security Adviser, and former Rep John Ratcliffe (R-Texas) to lead the CIA, will represent some of the most critical, if not adversarial incoming voices against China in Washington.
Rubio, who is sanctioned in China, has openly and aggressively pitched for more hostile policies towards China, with many of his policy positions becoming more mainstream in both the Republican and Democratic parties.
As it stands, the Trump administration risk jeopardising not only US-China relations but also the significant Chinese contribution to socio-economic transformation in Africa and the global south. Any adverse impacts on the Chinese economy will have ripple effects on developing countries and in Africa.
China is the major development partner with African countries, the source of capital and investment, which have played a major role in driving structural economic transformation.
China has also surpassed all the major powers in producing green technologies which are necessary for future clean jobs, creating new opportunities for the offtake in energy transition and greener economies in developing countries at relatively lower costs.
There is no doubt that the Trump administration will seek to undercut China-Africa relations given that the US and its allies have fallen behind by several years in forging relations that could resonate with domestic aspirations and interests in Africa and the global south.
While African countries should expect serious American rollback in aid provision, they will have to contend with transactional coercion and marginal incentives for those countries that will seek to work closely with the Trump-led administration. Many others may have to look at China for more aid and investment.
The Trump administration will most likely cut aid to Africa squeezing financial resources from such programmes as the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
Just like he did during his first term, Trump will withdraw funding to organs of the United Nations (UN). The UN plays an important cross-cutting role informed by its Charter to respond to many issues that mostly affect developing countries that lack the means and capacities to address them.
The withdrawal of the US from engagement and cooperation with multilateral institutions while seeking to maximise bilateral engagements is an opportunity for countries in the global south to consolidate mutual beneficial relations especially on issues related to climate change and sustainable green transition.
The major power brokers in the Trump administration are climate change skeptics. However, the United Nations and much of the world recognise that climate change poses an unprecedented collective threat to humanity.
In the past decades, China has surpassed the US, and major European powers in its innovative contribution to combating climate change, and fostering green transition at home and abroad, surging ahead in the production of technologies for renewable energy and green transition.
There is no doubt that the Trump administration presents major challenges, but also opportunities. However, the global south will need to work closer together, consolidate relations and cooperation.
Gideon Chitanga is a Post Doc Researcher at the Centre for Africa China Studies, University of Johannesburg.