As the blame game continues over who is at fault for Eskom’s failures, energy experts have warned South Africans to brace for worse blackouts as the utility’s woes were both political and historical.
This week, both Minister Gwede Mantashe and Minister Pravin Gordhan went to great lengths to shift the blame after Eskom plunged the country into Stage 6 load shedding for the second consecutive festive season – with Mantashe even suggesting possible treason.
Having downgraded from Stage 6 to 4 earlier in the week, the utility announced an increase to Stage 5 on Saturday afternoon citing an “unusually high demand” and the breakdown of units at Hendrina, Kendal and Kriel power stations. This was after Koeberg’s unit 1 was taken offline on Saturday morning for maintenance.
“We definitely have not seen the last of Stage 6, and even beyond. Eskom has planned for Stages 7 and 8. It's not something impossible,” warned energy expert Chris Yelland.
On Friday, Eskom said 5 901MW was down due to planned maintenance, and a further 15 394MW of capacity was unavailable due to breakdowns.
Yelland said the situation would worsen over the next year as 900MW would be unavailable from Koeberg as it maintains first unit 1 and then 2.
“The hydrogen explosion at Medupi power station also means that for the next two years, while repairs are being carried out, an additional 800MW will be off from the national grid. A further 2400MW will be unavailable at Kusile, at least for six months,“ said Yelland.
Yelland predicted that the downward trend would continue until 2023, saying it “could be worse but definitely not better”.
He said even though the government would have to redirect money from crucial service delivery projects, it had to find money to purchase diesel to enable the power stations to operate.
“Load shedding costs the economy far more than securing diesel. We also have to think about jobs being lost due to load shedding and the loss of tax revenue. This also places responsibility on the government at all levels to spend money carefully.”
Researcher in Energy Systems at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) Monique Le Roux agreed.
“The cost of load shedding to the economy is much higher than the cost of diesel generation, and it would make absolute sense for the government to allocate additional budget for diesel to mitigate against higher stages of load shedding,“ she said.
Director of the Centre for Renewable and Sustainable Energy Studies (CRSES) at Stellenbosch University Professor Sampson Mamphweli described the load-shedding crisis as both political and engineering-related.
“I believe that there are people who are sabotaging the system to push for the CEO, Andre De Ruyter, to be removed because he is stopping their corruption at Eskom. There are also trends that suggest that there could be people who are using this to put pressure on President Cyril Ramaphosa.”
Mamphweli said the energy availability factor for coal power stations had been declining since 2011.
“As long as power plants keep breaking, they will make it more difficult for Eskom to do maintenance at a larger scale than normal.”
Le Roux also blamed a lack of planning for the crisis.
“It has been clear for a very long time that new generation capacity should have been built many years ago and that Eskom’s existing fleet is not keeping up. There's also a lack of planning and investment in the national grid and associated infrastructure on a national level, which is now seriously crippling any plans of solving the power crises by the addition of renewable energy,” said Le Roux.
Eskom’s new board was given a mandate to raise the energy availability factor (EAF) of Eskom’s generation fleet, but Le Roux doubted if this would be possible to achieve based on the available data and the trend of “a fast-declining EAF”.
Minister of Health Dr Joe Phaahla expressed concern over load shedding this week, adding that the budget for generators, oil and fuel was exhausted.
The Western Cape Department of Health said it could still procure diesel when necessary.
“The increased levels of load shedding means that our medical equipment is at risk. Ventilators are of key importance, especially for Intensive Care Units. The risk of faulty ventilators could place our patients’ lives in danger, and if it is interrupted, it could lead to death. Therefore, our staff are continuously vigilant," said spokesperson Mark van der Heever.
He also said the department was monitoring where there was a need to increase diesel supplies for health facilities for their generators.
At least 10 hospitals in the province are exempt from load shedding, along with generators for all hospitals, emergency centres, forensic pathology laboratories, ambulance stations, cold-chain storage and some clinics.
Weekend Argus